More Conspiracy Theory
July 28 (commentary)-- Sigh. I really didn't think what I originally wrote was going to be that big of a deal, but it's taken on a life of its own, with the latest theory being that the rumor was maliciously timed to coincide with the launch of two full frame lenses from Sony.
Nonsense. If you follow the thread of what I've been writing about on my site for the past couple of weeks, I've been speculating about sensors. In particular, which sensors Nikon is likely to use for its coming cameras. That's because we have a lot of Nikon unknown sensor questions at the moment: what sensor will the D3000 replacement use, what sensor with the D90 replacement use, what sensor the D700 update will use, and the thing that provoked this whole train of thought on sensors in the first place: what the heck will the D4 sensor be like? After all, it needs to up the ante on the D3s or else the rest of the camera is going to have to be simply amazing.
In poking around asking questions about sensors in the pipeline I ended up with a real head scratcher when it came to FX (full frame): if the D4 is between the D3 and D3x (higher resolution than the D3 but less high ISO capability), then what happens to the D3s and D3x sensors come next summer when the D4 is launched?
Note the following: even though Nikon has had four FX bodies and Sony two full frame bodies, each has only really had one sensor. Nikon's own sensor gave us the D3, D700, and D3s. Sony's sensor gave us the A850, A900, and D3x. If Nikon chooses, say, 18mp for the D4 sensor and that's of its own design, it no longer needs the D3x sensor, I think. Most (but not all) Nikon shooters would rather have an 18mp sensor close or equal to the D3 performance than the current 24mp D3x sensor: the missing 6mp is far less important than the extra ISO bumps.
So, there are three possible paths:
Nikon designed sensor. The most likely path. Nikon has to not lose the D3s crowd with the D4, so high ISO capability comes first, but we need more pixels, so we'll get that, too. Nikon can probably deliver D3-like noise handling at 18mp. It'll be close, but it's do-able.
Sony designed sensor. Even when Nikon takes this route for the high end bodies, they tend to tweak (D300, D300s, D3x). But for this to work, Sony Semiconductor would have had to have committed to Nikon's schedule for the D4. That is possible, but Nikon depending upon someone else's for their flagship timetable is risky. I'd bet that they wouldn't do that again.
Cooperatively designed sensor. To my knowledge, we've never had full cooperative designs, though the D2x sensor did show up in both Nikon and Sony products and thus might have been. Given Nikon's need to succeed in cameras now (it's too large a part of their overall business), I'd think they want to have proprietary advances at the top. So I consider this improbable.
Okay, so now run the thought process forward on the Sony side in that first, most likely scenario: Sony is left with one sensor (24mp) driving really only one current camera (A850). Sure, they can do replacements or higher end models using that sensor, but if the sales were disappointing with the A850 and A900, what exactly would another model fix? It can't be less expensive. That was tried and didn't generate the volume Sony expected. With Nikon's D3x volume leaving the mix, there isn't enough volume to run that fab machine for a single low-volume product, especially one with really tight profit margins. So Sony would have to figure out a way to sell lots of A850's or come up with new full-frame cameras that have more features, and then video starts to raise its ugly head, meaning Sony would have to redesign the sensor. For one or two low-volume cameras. Remember, too, that Sony Semiconductor and Sony Imaging will have slightly different goals. It's Sony upper management that would look at those differences and arbitrate.
That's where my thinking was at when I started hearing rumors of an impending Sony decision. That the rumored decision corresponds to well with the way I think things are headed was one of the reasons I reported the rumor. It added information to my guess that Nikon was going to do their own D4 sensor and probably not update the D3x or come out with a D700x using the Sony sensor.
So I repeat: I have nothing against Sony. The A850/A900 are very good products, if a little lens starved. Personally, I'd like to see Sony be more aggressive and innovative with their full frame lineup because it would keep pressure on Nikon and Canon.
from:
http://www.bythom.com/
(Zumindest ist der Durchmesser des E-Bajonetts dafür wahrscheinlich mehr als geeignet nur minimal kleiner als, der des A-Bajonetts) Erklär's mal genauer.
